Growing a pot and living off one are different games. Once you're drawing money out, a bad run early can drain you in a way the same run later never would — that's sequence risk. This runs 600 retirements to show how likely your pot is to go the distance.
What you have, what you take, what you assume.
How it works: 600 randomly-drawn futures. Each month the pot earns your return (bumpy) and you take your withdrawal; if it ever hits zero, that future has run dry. "Lasts the distance" is the share that never empties. Withdrawals here are a flat amount (real plans often rise with inflation, which is tougher). A hypothetical model — not financial or retirement advice.