Size & Survive — the maths that keeps you in the game
Size & Survive · the risk toolkit

The maths that keeps you in the game

Most traders think about being right. Surviving is about the other half — how much you put on, and what a rough patch does to you. Five quick, honest calculators. Nothing here is advice; it's arithmetic you can lean on.

Position sizer

Work backwards from what you're willing to lose.

The share of the account you'd lose if the stop is hit. Most steady traders keep this at 0.5–2%.
Position size
units to buy
At risk
if the stop hits
Position value
size × entry
Leverage
value ÷ account

Risk of ruin

Even a real edge can sink you if you bet too big.

Size of a typical win vs a typical loss (losers = 1R).
Risk of ruin over ~200 trades
How ruin climbs as you bet bigger

Drawdown maths

The hole is deeper than it looks — climbing out takes more than falling in.

Only used to estimate how long clawing back would take.
Gain needed to get back to even
Time to recover
at that return
Recovery needed vs how far you fall

Expectancy

What one trade is worth, on average — win rate is only half the story.

Expectancy per trade
Per 100 trades
on average
Profit factor
£ won ÷ £ lost

Kelly

The bet size for fastest growth — and why almost nobody uses all of it.

Full Kelly
of account per trade — the growth-maximising bet
Half Kelly
smoother, common choice
Quarter Kelly
gentler still
Long-run growth vs how much you bet

Honest notes: these are teaching tools on simplified, two-outcome trades (a typical win, a typical loss), so treat the numbers as well-lit estimates, not guarantees. Risk of ruin is simulated over ~200 trades at fixed-fractional sizing; real life has fees, gaps and streaks these don't fully capture. Not financial advice — arithmetic to think with.