What's Possible — honest growth simulator
Honest growth simulator · illustrative, not advice

What's Possible

Most tools show the dream as a smooth line. Reality is hundreds of bumpy futures — some great, some ruinous. This runs 500 of them and shows the whole spread, including how often it ends badly. Scrub the chart, pin a plan, compare.

500 simulated futures · nothing here is a prediction
01

The simulator

Your plan

Presets set the two dials below. Higher-return styles also crank the risk.
The average you're assuming. Optimism is free here — reality charges for it below.
How wild the ride is. Higher = wider fan = more wipeouts.
A run that ever falls this far from its peak counts as a wipeout.

What 500 futures say

Typical (median)
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the middle outcome
Likely range
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1-in-10 low → 1-in-10 high
End below what you put in
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chance you're net down
Risk of ruin
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The cone of possible futures
80% land in here Median Pinned Paid in
Where you end up (500 runs)
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02

Why the order of your luck matters

Here's something almost nobody tells you. Two traders get the exact same set of yearly returns — same average, same everything — just in the opposite order. If they're steadily paying money in, they do not end up the same. And the counter-intuitive winner is the one who got the bad years first.

Bad years first
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Good years first
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How to read it honestly: the shaded cone is the middle 80% of 500 randomly-drawn futures — 1 in 10 finishes above it, 1 in 10 below. "Risk of ruin" is how many runs ever fell past the drawdown you said you'd quit at, whether or not they later recovered on paper. Higher assumed returns come bundled with the volatility that produces them — that's why ruin climbs as you chase them. Section 2 uses the same yearly returns re-ordered, so any difference is purely the sequence. Nothing here is a prediction or financial advice; it's a model to build intuition about return, risk, and time.